The $13 billion project to build a gas pipeline connecting giant gas fields in Nigeria to Europe faces uncertainty following the recent coup d’état in Niger. The ambitious 5,600-kilometer pipeline, which could fuel 11 countries along the African coast on its way to Morocco and potentially be connected to Spain or Italy’s energy system, was given renewed impetus after Russian gas supplies to the EU were cut off last year.
Energy ministers from Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger had agreed to accelerate the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline (TSGP) during a meeting in Abuja last June. The pipeline aims to carry 30 billion cubic meters per year of gas exports from the three countries to Europe. Despite being proposed in the 1970s, the project gained momentum in 2002 when the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and Algerian national oil and gas company Sonatrach signed a Memorandum of Understanding. A feasibility study conducted in 2006 deemed the pipeline technically and economically feasible and reliable.
However, progress on the project stalled until a new MoU was signed in 2022, reigniting hopes for its realization. The planned pipeline would span 4,128 km, connecting Warri in Nigeria to the major Hassi R’Mel gas hub in Algeria, passing through Niger. Initial agreements were reached with the previous regime, but the recent change in leadership has raised concerns about the project’s future.
The coup in Niger has transformed into a battle for influence between East and West rivals in Africa. The ousted President, Mohamed Bazoum, was pro-Europe and enjoyed a close relationship with France, a major supplier of commodities to Niger, including uranium. However, the new leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, formerly head of the presidential guard, is aligned with Russia and has already reduced commodity exports to France.
This geopolitical shift has drawn the attention of the European Union (EU) and Russia, both actively seeking to maintain or strengthen their ties with African leaders. The EU is keen to preserve its commercial relations with Niger, while Russia is aggressively promoting its engagement with African countries, offering various incentives such as free grain and discounted funding for nuclear power stations.
The future of the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline now hangs in the balance as it becomes intertwined with geopolitical interests and alliances. The outcome of this tussle between East and West rivals will determine whether the ambitious energy project can move forward or faces further uncertainty.
